Biggest (Statistical) Beating Ever

Posted on Thursday, June 4th, 2009 by blisterguy
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Posted in mtg, strategy

Earlier this year I decided I would take an interest in Shards of Alara block constructed, in part because I was getting back into Standard, and couldn’t be bothered spending up on Lorwyn and Shadowmoor block cards that were going to rotate like, any month now, and also because I was anticipating getting the Shoulder Tap to do Event Coverage for this years Block Constructed Premier Event, Pro Tour Honolulu.

Apparently I was getting ahead of myself, and every man, woman and intern in the Wizards of the Coast offices was all “omg me, me!” and my shoulder went untapped.

Heh, untapped.

So anyway, in an unusual move, the Magic Online Championship Series (Season Two) was scheduled a week before this Pro Tour, and used the exact same format. Well, other than it being online instead of real life, of course, so the shuffler being broken will be a non-issue this weekend.

(Except for Weasel, whose irl shuffler is broken.)

Before Alara Reborn came along to shake things up, the format was undeniably ruled by Naya decks. When I say “ruled”, I probably should say “Dominated” in as much as the mere appearance of a non-Naya deck in any of the Decks of the Week top 8 lists often lead people to proclaim The End is Nigh, The Sky is Falling and other such apocalypsisms.

Now that Alara Reborn has shaken things up, the format is undeniably ruled by Jund decks, and when I say “ruled”, I most definitely should be saying “Dominated”. The culprit, if one had to be named, would almost certainly be Bloodbraid Elf, or BBE. Technically, it’s more that the Cascade mechanic is potentially problematic, and the fact that Maelstrom Pulse and Putrit Leech are exceptionally good cards, but it’s Bloodbraid Elf that means nobody is playing X-Spells like Banefire, Martial Coup or the new and delicious Lavalanche anymore.

Considering there were 32 Bloodbraid Elves in the top 8 of the MTGO Champs, you’d think that the metagame for this weekend was well and truly sorted out, but I was curious. You may not have noticed, but they’ve added links to the rest of the decklists from the page of top 8 lists. For science, I tentatively clicked on the link to 9th-100th.

The top 16 showed some variance to the “BBE or Die” approach, with both 14th and 15th place playing none.

Hydroponix – 14th Place

Hydroponix had chosen to both go the hate ’em out with Valeron Outrider route, and to have an awesome Asterisk-esque user name. However, I’m pretty sure you could fit some Bloodbraids in there somewhere without crippling your manabase in the slightest, so I’m not sure what the point of that is, other than maybe trying to prove that you can Get There without the Elf. Considering the cash prize in that event goes to 1st place, and
the rest just get a bunch of packs, he didn’t exactly Get There, either.

Freyja – 15th Place

Freyja presented a more conventional Exalted Bant build, and avoided running any Outriders. I assume because they aren’t particularly good against non-Jund decks. Not exactly an obvious move, considering they only take up what, 75% of the metagame?

Top 8 – 32/32

Top 16 – 24/32

Total – 56/64

Moving on the the top 32.

The next 16 decks matched the top 16 in that everyone bar two were packing a playset of Bloodbraids. This time, strandba in 18th place was playing what amounted to an Old-School Naya deck. The only Alara Reborn cards he had were 3 Vithian Renegades in the sideboard. I think strandba could have fitted some Bloodbraids without even trying. I suspect, the answer here is that he did not even try. Murkkis in 20th place was the highest finisher playing an Esper Control build, which let’s face it, probably shouldn’t try to squeeze in the Elf, even though I’m assuming it probably could.

Top 8 – 32/32

Top 16 – 24/32

Top 32 – 56/64

Total – 112/128

An Esper deck built to include Bloodbraid is probably just a 5Color Control deck, of which there are none inside the top 32. In 33rd place, Orgg Ascetic played a 5CC deck, whose only creatures were 4 Wall of Denial and wait for it, 4 Bloodbraid Elf. In 34th, ChicoMartini had Exalted Bant, and so did thekid in 37th. KT0, in 42nd place, had an interesting take on Esper Control, including a bunch of Glassdust Hulks and Architect of Wills to cycle, powering up 4 Soul Manipulation. FilippoK in 44th place had 5CC as well, but lacked the Bloodbraids to go with his Walls, instead playing a single Sphinx of the Steel Wind.

In 50th place, Judah threw the numbers out by playing only 3 Bloodbraid Elves in his unusual 5CC build. Unusual in that the only cards he ran 4 of were Crumbling Necropolis, Savage Lands and Exotic Orchard. Everything else was quite frankly, a mess. JHawkins, 52nd, and Inuyasha, 53rd, both played 5CC, monkeywrenched85 in 55th place had a deck very similar to Orgg Ascetic, in that he actually did have the Elves, but only the Wall of Denials to keep them company. I can’t think a Wall of Denial would be particularly good company either, to be honest.

Drake in 58th place played 5CC, and finally Your Best Friend in 62nd place, played a deck whose only creatures were 4 Wall of Denial. No doubt the Walls would tell you otherwise, regardless of what you asked them, but here is his list.

Your Best Friend – 62th Place

What’s he expecting to do, Martial Coup away one of his Walls before casting Cruel Ultimatum? Perhaps he’s expecting to discard one to a Blightning or something, because there’s not much else can kill ’em. I do like that he’s playing 8 Regrowths though, that’s pretty cool. Everyone else in the top 64 was playing 4 Bloodbraid Elves. Maindeck too, none in their sideboards.

Top 8 – 32/32

Top 16 – 24/32

Top 32 – 56/64

Top 64 – 95/128

Total – 207/256

So what will the weekend bring? Will anyone channel Zvi Mowshowitz and Bring The New Solution? Is there something amazing that everyone on Magic Online has missed? Can I possibly end this without a question mark? Seems unlikely. No wait, success!